?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Previous Entry | Next Entry

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/104627/Most-Economists-Say-Recession-Has-Arrived-as-Outlook-Darkens;_ylt=AlLkYpJW_ooAoDhQgKH_9ky7YWsA

"The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month"

- Retail sales are down
- High gasoline prices and credit crunch
- Payrolls are either growing slowly or shrinking
- Expecting unemployment rate rising

I know on my own part, I've reduced spending somewhat. I'm noticing food prices are increasing.
I'm watching my credit card debt too.


Comments

( 10 comments — Leave a comment )
mdf356
Mar. 14th, 2008 04:16 pm (UTC)
The wife and I went into recession when she quit her job back in December. :-)
ripresa
Mar. 14th, 2008 05:42 pm (UTC)
I don't know how 4 of you do it :)
mdf356
Mar. 14th, 2008 08:14 pm (UTC)
We're still somewhere in the middle of the second quintile, so if we can't, how can 70% of the country?
xiuzan
Mar. 14th, 2008 04:38 pm (UTC)
I just heard our annual raises are not going to be higher than 2.5%. That's well below the cost of living increase.

I also have a car payment now, which I didn't before :(.

I guess it's hitting me. Guh!
ripresa
Mar. 14th, 2008 05:42 pm (UTC)
:(

car payments suck! my car is old now and i've been toying about getting a new car.. but don't want huge car payments.
orangepaisley
Mar. 14th, 2008 06:19 pm (UTC)
The economy slows down every 8 or 9 years and there's always a huge panic. Feh, I say. I've weathered worse economic slowdowns than this. In fact, I'm doing better now than ever, even with my huge-ass credit card debt and broken down car.

And once we get a Democrat back in the Oval Office things will bounce right back. *whoops--was that my outloud voice?*
emaymcnicks
Mar. 14th, 2008 06:49 pm (UTC)
i'm just glad we can all be out about the fact that we are in a recession.

on npr, for the past several months, the financial analysts were musing that we might be headed for a recession when everyone else was like 'duh, we're in recession right now'.

i knew we turned a corner when i heard an analyst talking about what it would take to come out of the recession.

artistically, i like recessions. i have a hypothesis that most good music, theater and art tends to be tied to recessions/depressions in our history.
tebing
Mar. 14th, 2008 07:38 pm (UTC)
When I entered grad school, there was a recession. Now that I'm about to leave grad school, another recession starts. Am I ever going to be able to find a real job?
dnivie
Mar. 15th, 2008 11:25 am (UTC)
Spillover
It's somewhat interesting that this far there's not been much spillover to Europe. In general we tend to be enough dependant on USA in both directions (both as a market for our goods, and also as a supplier of goods) that the economy here follows yours reasonably closely. (or you follow ours, it's not a one-way thing)

This time around though, it seems as if more than average of the problems are US-internal, for example we never HAD a large pile of subprime loans, so there's not much losses to be had for the credit-institutions trough them. Some have invested, indirectly in US subprimes, but it's in any case a much more limited effect.

Things are calming down somewhat here, but that was pretty much a given since we've been having the biggest party ever here the last few years. House-prices have stabilised, and my guesstimate is they'll fall this year, but come on, they're more than TRIPLED compared to what they where 10 years ago, a 10% fall is not the end of the world. (unlikely to fall deeply as long as EVERYONE has a job and the jobs pay well)

In no other sector than housing do we see anything you could reasonably label recession. Productivity is up 5% compared to a year ago, and predicted to grow by another 4% this year. Salaries are expected to grow 6-7% this year, inflation is still actually lower than the central bank wishes (2% aproximately), unemployment is at a record low (well under 2%) and the working-proportion of people is higher than it has ever been.

When you combine the 6-7% salary growth with the growth in number of people working, overall Norwegians will make 10-11% more money this year than last year, which even after subtracting for inflation leaves 8% more real purchasing-power. (give or take a percent, I don't remember the precise numbers.

Meanwhile, interest-rates are at 5.25% centrally, and expected to hit a peak of 5.5% this summer, thereafter interest-rates will most likely start slowly shrinking, mainly because you guys have cut your rates so much to try to stimulate spending. (the high rates now are because the central bank is trying to stimulate savings and put a damper on the wild party)

Offcourse some of the difference is due to the fact that if you're a Norwegian, $108/barrel is not exactly bad news. To the contrary, it means we make a metric ton of cash selling oil. I guess if you go into a deep recession, oil-demand will also go down and thus perhaps prices. But it'll take quite a bit to actually start to hurt, our national budget is made with a predicted average oilprice of $70/barrel for this year. (this is deliberately conservative) So only if the average for the year turns out to be less than that do we need to start cutting spendings.
desfontaines
Mar. 15th, 2008 10:28 pm (UTC)
Welcome to where Michigan has been for quite some time. I heard it called a one-state recession several months ago; the rest of the country is just now catching up to us.

I so love seeing my 503b account worth less money than I've invested in it the past few years. Sticking that money in a CD at the credit union would have been much better.
( 10 comments — Leave a comment )

Profile

I like pretty things
ripresa
ripresa

Latest Month

July 2019
S M T W T F S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
Powered by LiveJournal.com
Designed by chasethestars